Observed and expected changes in wildfire-conducive weather and fire events in peri-urban zones and key nature reserves of the Czech Republic
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00020699%3A_____%2F20%3AN0000096" target="_blank" >RIV/00020699:_____/20:N0000096 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://www.int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/c082p033.pdf" target="_blank" >https://www.int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/c082p033.pdf</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01617" target="_blank" >10.3354/cr01617</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Observed and expected changes in wildfire-conducive weather and fire events in peri-urban zones and key nature reserves of the Czech Republic
Original language description
Recent drought and a surge in days with weather conditions conducive to wildfire occurrence during 2015-2019 reminded the Czech Republic that it is not immune to this type of natural hazard. Although Central Europe has not been at the center of such events, observed climate data and climate projections suggest a tendency toward more years with wet and mild winters and dry and hot summers. To fill the existing knowledge gap, we used an ensemble of 9 fuel aridity metrics, including 3 dedicated fire weather indices, and evaluated their level of agreement with actual fire occurrence and their temporal trends. The analysis included peri-urban zones of the 36 largest cities and towns in the Czech Republic (home of 3.8 million inhabitants) and the 29 largest protected areas (covering 13.7% of the territory). Fire weather climatology, based on both the Fire Weather Index and the Forest Fire Danger Index, agreed well with the long-term frequency of fires both in peri-urban zones and within protected areas. Future projections based on regional and global model ensembles indicated a significant increase in fuel aridity and an increase in the area affected by fire-conducive conditions both around urban areas and within protected regions. In particular, the area affected by days with very high risk fire weather conditions is likely to increase significantly relative to the past 60 yr. However, the magnitude of the projected change depends to a large degree on the selected fire weather metric and whether RCM- or GCM-based scenarios are used.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10510 - Climatic research
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2020
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Climate Research
ISSN
1616-1572
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
82
Issue of the periodical within the volume
5.11.2020
Country of publishing house
DE - GERMANY
Number of pages
22
Pages from-to
33-54
UT code for WoS article
000651539200003
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85096744032