Statistical post-processing of short-term hydrological ensemble forecasts using the application of the dressing method
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00020699%3A_____%2F21%3AN0000014" target="_blank" >RIV/00020699:_____/21:N0000014 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://147.213.100.3/ah_articles/2021_22_2_Vlasak_276.pdf" target="_blank" >http://147.213.100.3/ah_articles/2021_22_2_Vlasak_276.pdf</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.31577/ahs-2021-0022.02.0031" target="_blank" >10.31577/ahs-2021-0022.02.0031</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Statistical post-processing of short-term hydrological ensemble forecasts using the application of the dressing method
Original language description
Probabilistic hydrological forecasts used in forecasting offices are often based only on different variants of precipitation forecast, which are the dominant source of forecast uncertainty during flood periods. The proposed method called dressing extends the uncertainty of meteorological forecast input by estimating the uncertainty of hydrological modeling using statistical analysis of deviations derived from simulated and observed flows. Adjustment of probabilistic flow forecasts is applied by post-processing without interfering with the hydrological model itself. The method is focused primarily on runoff phases, where heavy precipitation is not expected and the dispersion of the original ensemble is insufficient. A comparison of the success of short-term operative ensemble predictions of river discharge in the upper Vltava basin before and after adjusting by the dressing method showed a clear improvement in statistics.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>SC</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the SCOPUS database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10501 - Hydrology
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2021
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Acta Hydrologica Slovaca
ISSN
2644-4690
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
22
Issue of the periodical within the volume
2
Country of publishing house
SK - SLOVAKIA
Number of pages
8
Pages from-to
276-283
UT code for WoS article
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EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85111945058