A prediction of the beginning of the flowering of the common hazel in the Czech Republic

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00020699%3A_____%2F23%3AN0000016" target="_blank" >RIV/00020699:_____/23:N0000016 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/86652079:_____/23:00570964 RIV/62156489:43210/23:43922305

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10453-022-09770-7" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1007/s10453-022-09770-7</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10453-022-09770-7" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10453-022-09770-7</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

A prediction of the beginning of the flowering of the common hazel in the Czech Republic

Original language description

Timely information on the beginning of the flowering of important plant species of pollen allergens is consequential for the entire population due to pollen allergy and its extensive clinical impact worldwide. This paper examines the prediction of the beginning of the flowering of the common hazel (Corylus avellana) based on the PhenoClim phenological model using long-term phenological observations (1991–2020) in the Czech Republic. Furthermore, temporal and spatial evaluations of the beginning of the flowering of C. avellana were examined in different climate zones in the Czech Republic within the same period. In total, 40 phenological stations at altitudes from 155 to 743 m asl located in warm, medium warm, and cold climate zones were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall test. The beginning of the flowering of C. avellana changed progressively in timing, and the difference in the rate of shifts was between −33 and + 15 days per the entire period. An extreme shift to an earlier date was detected at stations located in a warm region (W2). In contrast, the highest shift to a later date was found at stations located in the cold climate regions (C4, C6, C7). Using the PhenoClim, the base temperature and temperature sums were calculated for the beginning of the flowering of the common hazel. As the most accurate predictor for this phenological phase and species, the maximum air temperature was determined as the best predictor based on the combination of RMSE and R2 values. The optimal start day for calculation was January 1st; the threshold (base temperature) was 2.7 °C with a temperature sum of 155.7 °C. The RMSE value was 5.46, and the MBE value was −0.93. The simulated data showed an excellent correlation with the observed data—the correlation coefficient was 0.932. The PhenoClim model results can be used in the forecast modelling of the beginning of the flowering of the common hazel in the Czech Republic.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Project

Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2023

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Aerobiologia

ISSN

0393-5965

e-ISSN

1573-3025

Volume of the periodical

2022

Issue of the periodical within the volume

November 2022

Country of publishing house

NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS

Number of pages

15

Pages from-to

—

UT code for WoS article

000881614000001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

—