What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in low altitude mountain range in Czechia?

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00020711%3A_____%2F22%3A10154892" target="_blank" >RIV/00020711:_____/22:10154892 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/3501/2022/nhess-22-3501-2022.pdf" target="_blank" >https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/3501/2022/nhess-22-3501-2022.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022" target="_blank" >10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in low altitude mountain range in Czechia?

Original language description

Climate change impact on avalanches is ambiguous. Fewer, wetter, and smaller avalanches are expected in areas where snow cover is declining, while in higher-altitude areas where snowfall prevails, snow avalanches are frequently and spontaneously triggered. In the present paper, we (1) analyse trends in frequency, magnitude, and orientation of wet- and slab-avalanche activity during 59 winter seasons (1962-2021) and (2) detect the main meteorological and snow drivers of wet and slab avalanches for winter seasons from 1979 to 2020 using machine learning techniques - decision trees and random forest - with a tool that can balance the avalanche-day and non-avalanche-day dataset. In terms of avalanches, low to medium-high mountain ranges are neglected in the literature. Therefore we focused on the low-altitude Czech Krkonoše mountain range (Central Europe). The analysis is based on an avalanche dataset of 60 avalanche paths. The number and size of wet avalanches in February and March have increased, which is consistent with the current literature, while the number of slab avalanches has decreased in the last 3 decades. More wet-avalanche releases might be connected to winter season air temperature as it has risen by 1.8&apos;C since 1979.The random forest (RF) results indicate that wet avalanches are influenced by 3 d maximum and minimum air temperature, snow depth, wind speed, wind direction, and rainfall. Slab-avalanche activity is influenced by snow depth, rainfall, new snow, and wind speed. Based on the balanced RF method, air-temperature-related variables for slab avalanches were less important than rain- and snow-related variables. Surprisingly, the RF analysis revealed a less significant than expected relationship between the new-snow sum and slab-avalanche activity. Our analysis allows the use of the identified wet- and slab-avalanche driving variables to be included in the avalanche danger level alerts. Although it cannot replace operational forecasting, machine learning can allow for additional insights for the decision-making process to mitigate avalanche hazard.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_ost - Miscellaneous article in a specialist periodical

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Project

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Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2022

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES

ISSN

1561-8633

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

22

Issue of the periodical within the volume

10

Country of publishing house

DE - GERMANY

Number of pages

25

Pages from-to

3501-3525

UT code for WoS article

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EID of the result in the Scopus database

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