Increasing spatial extent and frequency of flash drought in Europe with each degree of global warming
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00020711%3A_____%2F25%3A10155497" target="_blank" >RIV/00020711:_____/25:10155497 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae11c8" target="_blank" >https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae11c8</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae11c8" target="_blank" >10.1088/1748-9326/ae11c8</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Increasing spatial extent and frequency of flash drought in Europe with each degree of global warming
Original language description
Flash droughts, characterised by sudden and severe development of dry soil moisture conditions, have detrimental impacts on agriculture and ecosystems. Since reliable projections of any kind of drought are crucial for drought risk mitigation, studying how these flash droughts evolve as warming increases becomes essential. Herein, we analyse changes in flash drought frequency, geographic extent, and regional variability across Europe under incremental global warming levels of 1<sup>RING OPERATOR</sup>C, 1.5<sup>RING OPERATOR</sup>C, 2<sup>RING OPERATOR</sup>C and 3<sup>RING OPERATOR</sup>C. Soil moisture simulations are obtained using the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM), which has been forced with the bias-corrected meteorological data from ISIMIP3b (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3b). We use a percentile-based method to determine the rapid decline in soil moisture conditions during the growing season. Our results show that Northern and Central Europe are expected to see more frequent flash drought events at higher warming levels above 1.5<sup>RING OPERATOR</sup>C. As temperatures increase, new areas experience flash drought in Central Europe. In contrast, the increase in frequency and area is less in the Mediterranean. Across Europe, we expect the mean frequency of flash droughts to increase from around 3 events each decade at 1<sup>RING OPERATOR</sup>C to 5 events at 3<sup>RING OPERATOR</sup>C. The median value of the spatial area covered in flash drought is expected to increase from around 30% at 1<sup>RING OPERATOR</sup>C to close to 44% at 3<sup>RING OPERATOR</sup>C. Each degree of increase in warming is expected to add around one more flash drought event each decade and more than 6% of the area across Europe under flash drought. The threshold of 1.5<sup>RING OPERATOR</sup>C marks a significant increase in the area affected by flash droughts, highlighting the importance of adhering to the Paris Agreement targets and adaptation measures to counter such flash drought conditions and safeguard the agricultural economy, food security, and ecosystems.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10501 - Hydrology
Result continuities
Project
Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)
Others
Publication year
2025
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Environmental Research Letters
ISSN
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e-ISSN
1748-9326
Volume of the periodical
20
Issue of the periodical within the volume
11
Country of publishing house
GB - UNITED KINGDOM
Number of pages
12
Pages from-to
1-12
UT code for WoS article
001599553900001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-105020671632