Psychosis Prognosis Predictor: A continuous and uncertainty-aware prediction of treatment outcome in first-episode psychosis

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00023752%3A_____%2F25%3A43921332" target="_blank" >RIV/00023752:_____/25:43921332 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/00216208:11120/25:43927553

Result on the web

<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/acps.13754" target="_blank" >https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/acps.13754</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/acps.13754" target="_blank" >10.1111/acps.13754</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Psychosis Prognosis Predictor: A continuous and uncertainty-aware prediction of treatment outcome in first-episode psychosis

Original language description

Introduction: Machine learning models have shown promising potential in individual-level outcome prediction for patients with psychosis, but also have several limitations. To address some of these limitations, we present a model that predicts multiple outcomes, based on longitudinal patient data, while integrating prediction uncertainty to facilitate more reliable clinical decision-making. Material and Methods: We devised a recurrent neural network architecture incorporating long short-term memory (LSTM) units to facilitate outcome prediction by leveraging multimodal baseline variables and clinical data collected at multiple time points. To account for model uncertainty, we employed a novel fuzzy logic approach to integrate the level of uncertainty into individual predictions. We predicted antipsychotic treatment outcomes in 446 first-episode psychosis patients in the OPTiMiSE study, for six different clinical scenarios. The treatment outcome measures assessed at both week 4 and week 10 encompassed symptomatic remission, clinical global remission, and functional remission. Results: Using only baseline predictors to predict different outcomes at week 4, leave-one-site-out validation AUC ranged from 0.62 to 0.66; performance improved when clinical data from week 1 was added (AUC = 0.66–0.71). For outcome at week 10, using only baseline variables, the models achieved AUC = 0.56–0.64; using data from more time points (weeks 1, 4, and 6) improved the performance to AUC = 0.72–0.74. After incorporating prediction uncertainties and stratifying the model decisions based on model confidence, we could achieve accuracies above 0.8 for ~50% of patients in five out of the six clinical scenarios. Conclusion: We constructed prediction models utilizing a recurrent neural network architecture tailored to clinical scenarios derived from a time series dataset. One crucial aspect we incorporated was the consideration of uncertainty in individual predictions, which enhances the reliability of decision-making based on the model&apos;s output. We provided evidence showcasing the significance of leveraging time series data for achieving more accurate treatment outcome prediction in the field of psychiatry.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

30215 - Psychiatry

Project

—

Continuities

V - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z jinych verejnych zdroju

Publication year

2025

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica

ISSN

0001-690X

e-ISSN

1600-0447

Volume of the periodical

151

Issue of the periodical within the volume

3

Country of publishing house

DK - DENMARK

Number of pages

13

Pages from-to

280-292

UT code for WoS article

001315405200001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85204491440