Estimating relative uncertainty of geological 3D models with low density of input data in geologically complex regions

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00025798%3A_____%2F25%3A10169492" target="_blank" >RIV/00025798:_____/25:10169492 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-025-01778-0" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-025-01778-0</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12145-025-01778-0" target="_blank" >10.1007/s12145-025-01778-0</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Estimating relative uncertainty of geological 3D models with low density of input data in geologically complex regions

Original language description

This paper addresses uncertainty quantification in manually created 3D geological models of complex regions with sparse data, crucial for e.g. safety and exploration planning. Current models lack such assessments, which is particularly problematic for non-expert stakeholders. The Czech Geological Survey (CGS) developed a workflow to evaluate and visualize uncertainty in such models. Unlike models of geologically simpler areas with rich input data, these models based on sparse input data are created manually and rely on specific model-based interpretations that assume certain tectonic regime or deformation style known from a broader region and from field studies of rock outcrops. The classic uncertainty calculation based on the comparison of a range of (semi-) automatically created models cannot be employed for manually-created stand-alone geological models, and no suitable methodology has yet been determined for such cases. The methodology presented by the CGS considers three sources of uncertainty: the local lithological complexity, the distance to faults, and the so-called general uncertainty - a coefficient that increases with depth. The resulting uncertainty, normalized to the interval &lt; 0;1&gt;, is then reduced in the vicinity of available input data sources (boreholes, geological/geophysical profiles, etc.). The result comprises a 3D grid of the relative uncertainty of the given geological model, which can then be imported into the 3D software tools available to the users of the respective geological model. Demonstrated on the Čertovka site, a potential deep geological repository of high-level radioactive waste, the resulting uncertainty 3D grid guides users in understanding model limitations and can guide subsequent geological explorations.

Czech name

—

Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

20701 - Environmental and geological engineering, geotechnics

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2025

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Earth Science Informatics

ISSN

1865-0473

e-ISSN

1865-0481

Volume of the periodical

18

Issue of the periodical within the volume

259

Country of publishing house

DE - GERMANY

Number of pages

22

Pages from-to

1-22

UT code for WoS article

001422713100001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-86000484545