Longer growing seasons will not offset growth loss in drought-prone temperate forests of Central-Southeast Europe

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00027073%3A_____%2F25%3AN0000031" target="_blank" >RIV/00027073:_____/25:N0000031 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-64568-8" target="_blank" >https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-64568-8</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64568-8" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41467-025-64568-8</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Longer growing seasons will not offset growth loss in drought-prone temperate forests of Central-Southeast Europe

Original language description

The radial growth of temperate forests responds to climate change with remarkable variation across space and between species. However, there is limited understanding of how growing season extension and increasing drought stress contribute to long-term growth trends. Here, we calibrate the VS-Lite growth model using 2013 tree-ring chronologies from ten broadleaved and five coniferous genera in Central-Southeast Europe to predict intra-annual wood formation under four SSP climate scenarios through the 21st century. Results show that forecasted summer drought stress will be temporarily offset by an extended growing season, leading to stable or positive trends in tree-ring widths until a tipping point in the 2040s-2050s. During the second half of the 21st century, high-emission scenarios lead to growth acceleration in humid coniferous forests due to growing season extension and enhanced growth rate. In contrast, forecasted extension of the growing season is insufficient to compensate for declining summer growth rates at drier sites, resulting in significant growth reduction for all genera, particularly during dry years. Our results demonstrate that adjusting intra-annual wood formation to seasonal moisture availability may become crucial for tree survival in warmer climates. Furthermore, we highlight that only low-emission scenarios support non-declining stem growth in dry forests with current species composition.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

40102 - Forestry

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2025

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS

ISSN

—

e-ISSN

2041-1723

Volume of the periodical

16

Issue of the periodical within the volume

1

Country of publishing house

DE - GERMANY

Number of pages

14

Pages from-to

9535

UT code for WoS article

001605715800040

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-105020275742