Comparison of two approaches to prediction of prices

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00027251%3A_____%2F13%3A%230000507" target="_blank" >RIV/00027251:_____/13:#0000507 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://ap.pef.czu.cz/static/proceedings/2013/" target="_blank" >http://ap.pef.czu.cz/static/proceedings/2013/</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Comparison of two approaches to prediction of prices
Original language description
This article evaluates and compares two approaches to prediction of monthly prices of agricultural commodities in the Czech Republic. The first approach is an auto-regressive analysis, and the second one is a regression analysis of transmission of pricesin a production vertical. Predictions were made from year 2004 until present each month up to three months ahead. Several statistical tests and descriptive statistics are applied on results of the two approaches. Results show that the auto-regressive method provides much more accurate predictions than those provided by the analysis of price transmission, which are even worse than a na?ve prediction (the price will stay the same in the next month), but on the other hand make use of some relations between agricultural commodities. The first method, which predicts better than the na?ve method, is tested for efficiency, and it is found that it is not efficient, which means that it is not optimal. Moreover, in the case of prediction three m
Czech name
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Czech description
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Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year
2013
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Article name in the collection
AGRARIAN PERSPECTIVES XXII. DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN AGRIBUSINESS
ISBN
978-80-213-2419-0
ISSN
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e-ISSN
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Number of pages
8
Pages from-to
70-77
Publisher name
Česká zemědělská univerzita, Provozně ekonomická fakulta
Place of publication
Praha
Event location
Praha
Event date
Sep 17, 2013
Type of event by nationality
EUR - Evropská akce
UT code for WoS article
000338040300006

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