Price Forecasting Accuracy of the OECD-FAO’s Agricultural Outlook and the European Commission DG AGRI’s Medium-Term Agricultural Outlook Report
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00027251%3A_____%2F21%3AN0000016" target="_blank" >RIV/00027251:_____/21:N0000016 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://online.agris.cz/archive/2021/03/08" target="_blank" >https://online.agris.cz/archive/2021/03/08</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.7160/aol.2021.130308" target="_blank" >10.7160/aol.2021.130308</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Price Forecasting Accuracy of the OECD-FAO’s Agricultural Outlook and the European Commission DG AGRI’s Medium-Term Agricultural Outlook Report
Original language description
The OECD-FAO's Agricultural Outlook and the European Commission DG AGRI's Medium-term agricultural outlook report provide price forecasts. Users of these forecasts may be interested in their accuracy. This paper measures the accuracy for values forecast for the following year. These are very accurate as regards the AO EU price of poultry, the EC outlook price of common wheat and feed barley, but not so accurate as regards the EC outlookon beef prices. In some cases, discrepancies between the forecasts follow a systematic pattern. The paper also discovers how the OECD-FAO's outlook projections for a common wheat world representative price are changing from year to year. Usually they are positively correlated, but there are certain exceptions where their correlation is significantly negative. This means that the price projections of some commodities may vary dramatically.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>SC</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the SCOPUS database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10102 - Applied mathematics
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2021
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics
ISSN
1804-1930
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
13
Issue of the periodical within the volume
3
Country of publishing house
CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC
Number of pages
11
Pages from-to
77-87
UT code for WoS article
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EID of the result in the Scopus database
999