Modelling Long-Term Electricity Contracts at EEX
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F11%3A10051792" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/11:10051792 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Modelling Long-Term Electricity Contracts at EEX
Original language description
The main aim of this paper is to develop and calibrate an econometric model for modelling prices of long term electricity futures contracts. The calibration of our model is performed on data from EEX AG allowing us to capture the specific features of German electricity market. The data sample contains several structural breaks which have to be taken into account for modelling. We model the data with an ARIMAX model which reveals high correlation between the price of electricity futures contracts (namelyPhelix Base Fututes with next year's delivery) and prices of long-term futures contracts of fuels (namely coal, natural gas and crude oil). Besides this, also a share price index of representative electricity companies traded on Xetra, spread between 10Y and 1Y German bonds and exchange rate between EUR and USD appeared to have significant explanatory power over these futures contracts on EEX.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
O - Miscellaneous
CEP classification
AH - Economics
OECD FORD branch
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Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/GAP403%2F10%2F1235" target="_blank" >GAP403/10/1235: Institutional Responses to Financial Market Failures</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>Z - Vyzkumny zamer (s odkazem do CEZ)<br>S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach
Others
Publication year
2011
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů