Leading Indicators of Crisis Incidence: Evidence from Developed Countries
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F13%3A10133719" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/13:10133719 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/00216208:11640/13:00391844
Result on the web
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.01.001" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.01.001</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.01.001" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.01.001</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Leading Indicators of Crisis Incidence: Evidence from Developed Countries
Original language description
We examine which indicators are most useful in explaining the cost of economic crises in EU and OECD countries between 1970 and 2010. To define the dependent variable we combine a measure of costs to the economy, which consists of the output and employment loss and the fiscal deficit, with a database of crisis occurrence designed specifically for this task. We take into account model uncertainty in two steps. First, for each potential leading indicator we select the relevant prediction horizon by usingpanel vector autoregression. Second, we identify the most useful leading indicators with Bayesian model averaging. Our results suggest that domestic housing prices, share prices, and credit growth, and some global variables, such as private credit, constitute important sources of risk.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>x</sub> - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)
CEP classification
AH - Economics
OECD FORD branch
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Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/GAP402%2F11%2F1487" target="_blank" >GAP402/11/1487: Monetary policy, financial stability and financial crisis</a><br>
Continuities
S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach
Others
Publication year
2013
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Journal of International Money and Finance
ISSN
0261-5606
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
35
Issue of the periodical within the volume
1
Country of publishing house
GB - UNITED KINGDOM
Number of pages
19
Pages from-to
1-19
UT code for WoS article
000319640800001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
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