Migration incentives and flows between Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine and the European Union: a forecasting model

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F14%3A10283075" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/14:10283075 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.14254/2071-789X.2014/7-4/1" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.14254/2071-789X.2014/7-4/1</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.14254/2071-789X.2014/7-4/1" target="_blank" >10.14254/2071-789X.2014/7-4/1</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Migration incentives and flows between Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine and the European Union: a forecasting model

Original language description

The main objective of this paper is to elaborate econometric model forecasting the stocks of migrants from the Eastern European states (EES) in the Visegrad group (V4) countries and the European Union Member States (EU MS) in case of visa abolition. We use the data span of 2008-2012 and the econometric techniques known as Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR), Panel data Least Squares (PLS) and General method of moments (GMM) to build three types of possible scenarios for migration from the Eastern European countries (Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine) to the V4 and to the EU as a whole in the next 35 years, i.e. until the year of 2050 with a simulated shock of visa abolition set at the year of 2015. Our results show that hypothetical visa abolition is not going to dramatically increase migration from the Eastern European countries in the EU Member States. Even though the immediate effect of visa abolition would probably result in the slight increase of migration stocks in the V4 and EU coun

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_x - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)

CEP classification

AH - Economics

OECD FORD branch

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Project

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Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2014

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Economics and Sociology

ISSN

2071-789X

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

7

Issue of the periodical within the volume

4

Country of publishing house

UA - UKRAINE

Number of pages

15

Pages from-to

11-25

UT code for WoS article

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EID of the result in the Scopus database

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