All

What are you looking for?

All
Projects
Results
Organizations

Quick search

  • Projects supported by TA ČR
  • Excellent projects
  • Projects with the highest public support
  • Current projects

Smart search

  • That is how I find a specific +word
  • That is how I leave the -word out of the results
  • “That is how I can find the whole phrase”

Banking and Currency Crises: Differential Diagnostics for Developed Countries

The result's identifiers

  • Result code in IS VaVaI

    <a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F17%3A10329379" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/17:10329379 - isvavai.cz</a>

  • Result on the web

    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1570" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1570</a>

  • DOI - Digital Object Identifier

    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1570" target="_blank" >10.1002/ijfe.1570</a>

Alternative languages

  • Result language

    angličtina

  • Original language name

    Banking and Currency Crises: Differential Diagnostics for Developed Countries

  • Original language description

    We identify a set of &apos;rules of thumb&apos; that characterize economic, financial and structural conditions preceding the onset of banking and currency crises in 36 advanced economies over 1970-2010. We use the classification and regression tree methodology and its random forest extension, which permits the detection of key variables driving binary crisis outcomes, allows for interactions among key variables and determines critical tipping points. We distinguish between basic country conditions, country structural characteristics and international developments. We find that crises are more varied than they are similar. For banking crises, we find that low net interest rate spreads in the banking sector and a shallow, or inverted, yield curve is their most important forerunners in the short term. In the longer term, it is high house price inflation. For currency crises, high domestic short-term rates coupled with overvalued exchange rates are the most powerful short-term predictors. We find that both country structural characteristics and international developments are relevant banking-crisis predictors. Currency crises, however, seem to be driven more by country idiosyncratic, short-term developments. We find that some variables, such as the domestic credit gap, provide important unconditional signals, but it is difficult to use them as conditional signals and, more importantly, to find relevant threshold values.

  • Czech name

  • Czech description

Classification

  • Type

    J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

  • CEP classification

  • OECD FORD branch

    50201 - Economic Theory

Result continuities

  • Project

    <a href="/en/project/GBP402%2F12%2FG097" target="_blank" >GBP402/12/G097: DYME-Dynamic Models in Economics</a><br>

  • Continuities

    P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Others

  • Publication year

    2017

  • Confidentiality

    S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Data specific for result type

  • Name of the periodical

    International Journal of Finance and Economics

  • ISSN

    1076-9307

  • e-ISSN

  • Volume of the periodical

    22

  • Issue of the periodical within the volume

    1

  • Country of publishing house

    GB - UNITED KINGDOM

  • Number of pages

    24

  • Pages from-to

    44-67

  • UT code for WoS article

    000394161500004

  • EID of the result in the Scopus database

    2-s2.0-84997815830