How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F21%3A10426250" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/21:10426250 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=R2V.jURBz9" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=R2V.jURBz9</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103714" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103714</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis
Original language description
A key theoretical prediction in financial economics is that under risk neutrality and rational expectations a currency's forward rates should form unbiased predictors of future spot rates. Yet scores of empirical studies report negative slope coefficients from regressions of spot rates on forward rates. We collect 3643 estimates from 91 research articles and using recently developed techniques investigate the effect of publication and misspecification biases on the reported results. Correcting for these biases yields slope coefficients in the intervals (0.23,0.45) and (0.95,1.16) for the currencies of developed and emerging countries respectively, which implies that empirical evidence is in line with the theoretical prediction for emerging economies and less puzzling than commonly thought for developed economies. Our results also suggest that the coefficients are systematically influenced by the choice of data, numeraire currency, and estimation method
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
50201 - Economic Theory

Project
Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year
2021
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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