Sectoral Impacts of International Labour Migration and Population Ageing in the Czech Republic
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F22%3A10429784" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/22:10429784 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=EX6NVa9ruu" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=EX6NVa9ruu</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10614-021-10152-3" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10614-021-10152-3</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Sectoral Impacts of International Labour Migration and Population Ageing in the Czech Republic
Original language description
This study assesses macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of demographic changes in the Czech Republic as a result of population ageing and international migration. To do so, it develops a unique dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model with detailed representation of individuals of different ages, educational attainment and occupations, as well as interrelations among industrial sectors in producing intermediate and final outputs. The numerical simulations show that the Czech economy will face a substantial reduction in its effective labour supply and changes in aggregate as well as sectoral demand patterns, leading to lower economic growth (4.4% lower GDP by 2050 in absence of technological progress), increase in unit labour costs (5.2% higher wages in absence of inflation) and lower competitiveness of the economy as a whole. Replacement migration may alleviate the pressure, yet the current gross immigration would need to increase by at least 8-17 thousand individuals per year compared to the UN projections (a 15-34% increase) without changing emigration patterns in order to offset the adverse long-term effects.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
50201 - Economic Theory
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach
Others
Publication year
2022
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Computational Economics
ISSN
0927-7099
e-ISSN
1572-9974
Volume of the periodical
60
Issue of the periodical within the volume
2
Country of publishing house
NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS
Number of pages
26
Pages from-to
375-400
UT code for WoS article
000675359300001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85110999925