Improving national strategic foresight with the use of forecasting tournaments and its implications for the study of international relations

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F22%3A10437993" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/22:10437993 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=WNWhrn574T" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=WNWhrn574T</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/stomiedintrelat.17424.1" target="_blank" >10.12688/stomiedintrelat.17424.1</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Improving national strategic foresight with the use of forecasting tournaments and its implications for the study of international relations

Original language description

Improving national strategic foresight can help the formation of more robust and informed policies, including foreign policy. Predicated upon the theory behind peer-prediction elicitation methods such as Reciprocal Scoring, we combined two foresight methods - Forecasting tournaments and a Delphi method - into a design in which a forecasting tournament predicted the results of a Delphi. Experts in a Delphi could take into account the arguments of participants from a prior forecasting tournament and thus make better-informed decisions. This methodological article aims to validate the feasibility of this design. It describes how we implemented it for identifying and prioritizing global megatrends as part of a strategic foresight project for the Czech government. We found this design practically applicable, while the forecasting tournament also seems to improve the ability of participants to predict a group consensus. Similar combinations of foresight methods could be used to enhance the study of international relations.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_ost - Miscellaneous article in a specialist periodical

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

50601 - Political science

Project

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Continuities

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year

2022

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Stosunki Międzynarodowe – International Relations

ISSN

2754-2572

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

2

Issue of the periodical within the volume

21 January

Country of publishing house

PL - POLAND

Number of pages

16

Pages from-to

4

UT code for WoS article

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EID of the result in the Scopus database

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