Continuous simulation for computing design hydrographs for water structures
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11310%2F17%3A10382661" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11310/17:10382661 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/00020711:_____/17:00004574
Result on the web
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11204" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11204</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11204" target="_blank" >10.1002/hyp.11204</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Continuous simulation for computing design hydrographs for water structures
Original language description
The contribution discusses the problems with modelling design floods for water structures. The statistical extrapolations of observed flood series of, for example, 80 years "only" to the annual exceedance probability AEP = 0.01 is difficult due to the large variability in extreme values. For large dams, however, the AEP = 0.001 or 0.0001 is required. Most of the uncertainties in hydrological modelling are epistemic (uncertainties in model structure, model parameters, inputs, calibration data, and in measurements) and moreover some measurements can be disinformative. With powerful computers, it is now possible to produce very long series (100 to100,000 years in hourly time step) using precipitation and temperatures computed with a weather model. Within the framework of the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) many (thousands) of such continuous simulations are produced and compared to the observed historical data. According to Keith Beven's Manifesto for the equifinality thesis the differences between modelled and observed values should not be larger than some limits of acceptability based on what is known about errors in the input and output observations used for model evaluation (e.g., for flow the current metering data are used). The unacceptable realisations are rejected. We have been working with the frequency version of TOPMODEL in various versions according to the unique characteristics of each catchment. Design hydrographs for water structures are then extracted from the acceptable realisations. The continuous simulation with uncertainty estimation seems nowadays the most promising method of computing design hydrographs for important water structures, even if issues associated with epistemic uncertainty of model assumptions remain.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10508 - Physical geography
Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/GA13-32133S" target="_blank" >GA13-32133S: Headwaters retention potential with respect to hydrological extremes</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)
Others
Publication year
2017
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Hydrological Processes
ISSN
0885-6087
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
31
Issue of the periodical within the volume
13
Country of publishing house
GB - UNITED KINGDOM
Number of pages
10
Pages from-to
2320-2329
UT code for WoS article
000403906900001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85019929130