Kessler Syndrome: System Dynamics Approach

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F16%3A10366181" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/16:10366181 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.systemdynamics.org/assets/conferences/2016/proceed/papers/P1296.pdf" target="_blank" >https://www.systemdynamics.org/assets/conferences/2016/proceed/papers/P1296.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Kessler Syndrome: System Dynamics Approach

Original language description

The present paper explores the Kessler Syndrome (the potentially catastrophic accumulation of debris in the Low-Earth Orbit) through System Dynamics methodology. It models satellites and three classes of debris, their fragmentation, interactions and gradual decay over 50 years. It presents three scenarios: a) a &quot;business as usual&quot; approach, which leads to exponential accumulation and growing rate of satellite losses, but no catastrophic chain reaction; b) a conflict with a large-scale deployment of Anti-Satellite Weapons, leading to accelerated accumulation and losses, but still no chain reaction; and c) cessation of all LEO satellite launches, illustrating high inertia of the system, which continues to produce more debris. Both b) and c) take place in 2040. The paper demonstrates the gravity of the situation and the necessity for a sustainable long-term solution, as orbital debris poses a threat to our future space operation even without triggering a catastrophic chain reaction.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

D - Article in proceedings

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10201 - Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8)

Project

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Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2016

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Article name in the collection

Proceedings of the 34th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

ISBN

978-1-5108-3020-2

ISSN

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e-ISSN

neuvedeno

Number of pages

9

Pages from-to

1199-1207

Publisher name

Curran Associates, Inc.

Place of publication

Red Hook, NY

Event location

Delft, Nizozemsko

Event date

Jul 17, 2016

Type of event by nationality

WRD - Celosvětová akce

UT code for WoS article

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