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How macroscopic laws describe complex dynamics: Asymptomatic population and Covid-19 spreading

The result's identifiers

  • Result code in IS VaVaI

    <a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F20%3A10421850" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/20:10421850 - isvavai.cz</a>

  • Result on the web

    <a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=aMml6gyy4r" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=aMml6gyy4r</a>

  • DOI - Digital Object Identifier

    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S0129183120501120" target="_blank" >10.1142/S0129183120501120</a>

Alternative languages

  • Result language

    angličtina

  • Original language name

    How macroscopic laws describe complex dynamics: Asymptomatic population and Covid-19 spreading

  • Original language description

    Macroscopic growth laws describe in an effective way the underlying complex dynamics of the spreading of infections, as in the case of Covid-19, where the counting of the cumulative number N(t) of detected infected individuals is a generally accepted variable to understand the epidemic phase. However, N(t) does not take into account the unknown number of asymptomatic cases A(t). The considered model of Covid-19 spreading is based on a system of coupled differential equations, which include the dynamics of the spreading among symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals and the strong containment effects due to the social isolation. The solution has been compared with N(t), determined by a single differential equation with no explicit reference to A(t), showing the equivalence of the two methods. The model is applied to Covid-19 spreading in Italy where a transition from an exponential behavior to a Gompertz growth for N(t) has been observed in more recent data. The information contained in the time series N(t) turns out to be reliable to understand the epidemic phase, although it does not describe the total infected population. The asymptomatic population is larger than the symptomatic one in the fast growth phase of the spreading.

  • Czech name

  • Czech description

Classification

  • Type

    J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

  • CEP classification

  • OECD FORD branch

    10300 - Physical sciences

Result continuities

  • Project

  • Continuities

    I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Others

  • Publication year

    2020

  • Confidentiality

    S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Data specific for result type

  • Name of the periodical

    International Journal of Modern Physics C

  • ISSN

    0129-1831

  • e-ISSN

  • Volume of the periodical

    31

  • Issue of the periodical within the volume

    8

  • Country of publishing house

    SG - SINGAPORE

  • Number of pages

    11

  • Pages from-to

    2050112

  • UT code for WoS article

    000567816000008

  • EID of the result in the Scopus database

    2-s2.0-85091093106