How macroscopic laws describe complex dynamics: Asymptomatic population and Covid-19 spreading
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F20%3A10421850" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/20:10421850 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=aMml6gyy4r" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=aMml6gyy4r</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S0129183120501120" target="_blank" >10.1142/S0129183120501120</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
How macroscopic laws describe complex dynamics: Asymptomatic population and Covid-19 spreading
Original language description
Macroscopic growth laws describe in an effective way the underlying complex dynamics of the spreading of infections, as in the case of Covid-19, where the counting of the cumulative number N(t) of detected infected individuals is a generally accepted variable to understand the epidemic phase. However, N(t) does not take into account the unknown number of asymptomatic cases A(t). The considered model of Covid-19 spreading is based on a system of coupled differential equations, which include the dynamics of the spreading among symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals and the strong containment effects due to the social isolation. The solution has been compared with N(t), determined by a single differential equation with no explicit reference to A(t), showing the equivalence of the two methods. The model is applied to Covid-19 spreading in Italy where a transition from an exponential behavior to a Gompertz growth for N(t) has been observed in more recent data. The information contained in the time series N(t) turns out to be reliable to understand the epidemic phase, although it does not describe the total infected population. The asymptomatic population is larger than the symptomatic one in the fast growth phase of the spreading.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10300 - Physical sciences
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2020
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
International Journal of Modern Physics C
ISSN
0129-1831
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
31
Issue of the periodical within the volume
8
Country of publishing house
SG - SINGAPORE
Number of pages
11
Pages from-to
2050112
UT code for WoS article
000567816000008
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85091093106