Recalculation of error growth models' parameters for the ECMWF forecast system

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F21%3A10439264" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/21:10439264 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=YhgX5oH_bk" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=YhgX5oH_bk</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7377-2021" target="_blank" >10.5194/gmd-14-7377-2021</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Recalculation of error growth models' parameters for the ECMWF forecast system
Original language description
This article provides a new estimate of error growth models' parameters approximating predictability curves and their differentials, calculated from data of the ECMWF forecast system over the 1986 to 2011 period. Estimates of the largest Lyapunov exponent are also provided, along with model error and the limit value of the predictability curve. The proposed correction is based on the ability of the Lorenz (2005) system to simulate the predictability curve of the ECMWF forecasting system and on comparing the parameters estimated for both these systems, as well as on comparison with the largest Lyapunov exponent (lambda = 0:35 d(-1)) and limit value of the predictability curve (E-infinity = 8:2) of the Lorenz system. Parameters are calculated from the quadratic model with and without model error, as well as by the logarithmic, general, and hyperbolic tangent models. The average value of the largest Lyapunov exponent is estimated to be in the < 0.32; 0.41 > d(-1) range for the ECMWF forecasting system; limit values of the predictability curves are estimated with lower theoretically derived values, and a new approach for the calculation of model error based on comparison of models is presented.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
—
OECD FORD branch
10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Project
<a href="/en/project/GA19-16066S" target="_blank" >GA19-16066S: Nonlinear interactions and information transfer in complex systems with extreme events</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year
2021
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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