Electricity consumption modelling: a case of Germany
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11640%2F16%3A00459223" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11640/16:00459223 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.010" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.010</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.010" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.010</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Electricity consumption modelling: a case of Germany
Original language description
Recent research has found that electricity consumption is a very useful variable in economics. In many applications it might be desirable to decompose electricity consumption into unpredictable and deterministic (or highly predictable) component. We want to find out whether forecasting works better if we model electricity load independently for each hour or if we model in the first step the average daily consumption and in a second step we model for each hour deviation from this average. We therefore compare two simple, yet flexible models for hourly electricity consumption in Germany. Both models use temperature, industrial production, hours of daylight and dummies for days of the week and month of the year as explanatory variables. We find that the first model, despite being simpler, forecasts hourly electricity demand more precisely. This indicates that hourly electricity consumption represents various goods, and should be modelled separately for each hour.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>x</sub> - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)
CEP classification
AH - Economics
OECD FORD branch
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Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2016
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Economic Modelling
ISSN
0264-9993
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
55
Issue of the periodical within the volume
June
Country of publishing house
NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS
Number of pages
10
Pages from-to
92-101
UT code for WoS article
000375164200009
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-84960908856