Impacts of carbon pricing, brown coal availability and gas cost on Czech energy system up to 2050

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11690%2F16%3A10323817" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11690/16:10323817 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054421501645X" target="_blank" >http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054421501645X</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.12.003" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.energy.2015.12.003</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Impacts of carbon pricing, brown coal availability and gas cost on Czech energy system up to 2050

Original language description

A dynamic partial equilibrium model, TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System), is built to optimize the energy system in a post-transition European country, the Czech Republic. The impacts of overall nine scenarios on installed capacity, capital and fuel costs, air quality pollutant emission, emission of CO2 and environmental and health damage are quantified for a period up to 2050. These scenarios are built around three different price sets of the EUA (EU allowance) to emit greenhouse gasses alongside a policy that retains the ban on brown coal mining in two Czech mines, a policy that will allow the re-opening of mining areas under this ban (i.e. within the territorial ecological limits), and a low natural gas price assumption. We found that the use of up until now dominant brown coal will be significantly reduced in each scenario, although reopening the coal mines will result in its smaller decline. With low EUA price, hard coal will become the dominant fuel in electricity generation, while nuclear will overtake this position with a 51% or even 65% share assuming the central price of EUA, or high EUA price, respectively. The low price of natural gas will result in an increasing gas share from an almost zero share recently up to about 42%. This stimulus does not however appear at all with low EUA price. Neither of these scenarios will achieve the renewable energy sources 2030 targets and only a high EUA price will lead to almost full de-carbonization of the Czech power system, with fossil fuels representing only 16% of the energy mix. The low EUA price will result in an increase in CO2 emissions, whereas the high EUA price will reduce CO2 emission by at least 81% compared to the 2015 reference level.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_x - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)

CEP classification

AH - Economics

OECD FORD branch

—

Project

<a href="/en/project/TD020299" target="_blank" >TD020299: Analysis of regulation environmental impacts and prediction of Czech energy sector development – Pan-Europaen dynamic model TIMES</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2016

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Energy

ISSN

0360-5442

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

108

Issue of the periodical within the volume

Srpen

Country of publishing house

GB - UNITED KINGDOM

Number of pages

15

Pages from-to

19-33

UT code for WoS article

000382414200003

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-84952908490