Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14110%2F24%3A00135822" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14110/24:00135822 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893923001369" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893923001369</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics

Original language description

Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO)’s Research and Development (R&amp;D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&amp;D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities. Methods: Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&amp;D Blueprint and additional pathogens. Results: A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARSCoV- 2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential. Conclusion: Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_SC - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the SCOPUS database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

30303 - Infectious Diseases

Project

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Continuities

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year

2024

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE

ISSN

1477-8939

e-ISSN

1873-0442

Volume of the periodical

57

Issue of the periodical within the volume

102676

Country of publishing house

GB - UNITED KINGDOM

Number of pages

6

Pages from-to

1-6

UT code for WoS article

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EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85180484561