Comparative SIR/SEIR modeling of the Antonine Plague in Rome

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14210%2F25%3A00140647" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14210/25:00140647 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0313684" target="_blank" >https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0313684</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313684" target="_blank" >10.1371/journal.pone.0313684</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Comparative SIR/SEIR modeling of the Antonine Plague in Rome

Original language description

Some scholars consider the Antonine Plague to have been a major disease outbreak in the 2nd century CE that caused a significant decline in the population of the Roman Empire. Although there is currently no molecular evidence of the specific pathogen, literary evidence indicates the parameters of the disease that it caused and how significant the impact on Roman society was. One way to advance the current discussion concerning the Antonine Plague’s impact on the Roman Empire’s population is to examine the currently available sources and comparatively model the spread of different pathogens in a specific location with known demographic data for the relevant period. To accomplish this, we developed a series of dynamic ordinary differential equation models of the spread of disease in Rome between 165 and 189 CE for several pathogens. We found that daily disease deaths in the final years of the pandemic were inconsistent with estimates reported in primary sources, suggesting that either (a) the impact of the Antonine Plague may have been exaggerated in the descriptions of ancient authors, or (b) the daily deaths in ca. 189 CE were caused by a different disease event than the Antonine Plague, or (c) seasonality might have been a significant factor changing the intensity of disease spread, with the population more severely affected during the winter months. Although none of the pathogens we analyzed emerged as the likely causative agent of the Antonine Plague, the models show that the overall mortality rate would have increased maximally by 7%. This result contradicts the mortality rate accepted by historians who defend the thesis of the significant impact of this epidemic on the demography of the Roman Empire.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

60304 - Religious studies

Project

Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2025

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

PLOS ONE

ISSN

1932-6203

e-ISSN

1932-6203

Volume of the periodical

20

Issue of the periodical within the volume

2

Country of publishing house

US - UNITED STATES

Number of pages

24

Pages from-to

1-24

UT code for WoS article

001445286500019

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85217826904