Discord at Home, Discord in the World : Is Turkey, NATO’s Eastern Frontier, Sustainably Stable and Peaceful?

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14230%2F18%3A00106897" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14230/18:00106897 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Discord at Home, Discord in the World : Is Turkey, NATO’s Eastern Frontier, Sustainably Stable and Peaceful?

Original language description

The aim of this presentation is to determine if it is likely for Turkey to remain a stable country that will avoid serious internal conflicts and violent conflicts abroad. The keynote examines long-term cultural and civilizational variables of cosmopolitanism and rationality. It examines indicators that are more immediately associated with escalation of internal conflict: violent criminality, youth unemployment rate income inequality, corruption perception, and political terror. In the end it examines the level of militarization and the evolution and current state of civil-military relations. It concludes that most of the indicators do not bode well for the stability and democratic consolidation of Turkey. The reason Turkey has not succumbed to violence and social instability is likely due to its high level of political repression. The author concludes that given the characteristics of the Turkish society, two basic scenarios for future development are feasible: Turkey can either become much less stable and a victim to social discord with a chance of dangerous escalation; or it will cement its authoritarianism and manage social order by draconian policing, disproportionate “counter-terrorism” laws and a disregard for the rule of law. Neither of these scenarios is favorable for its NATO allies, who must engage Turkey and work within the framework of existing alliances and international organizations to mitigate the risks of Turkey either becoming a rogue player or a state embroiled in a civil conflict.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

O - Miscellaneous

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

50601 - Political science

Project

<a href="/en/project/VI20172020094" target="_blank" >VI20172020094: Methodology for the forecast, early warning, and prevention of threats to Czech internal security from regional armed conflicts</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2018

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů