Formalized Scenario Building Apadpation for Conflict Prevention

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14230%2F20%3A00114805" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14230/20:00114805 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://www.strategii21.ro/A/2020-04.%20STRATEGIC%20CHANGES%20IN%20SECURITY%20AND%20INTERNATIONAL%20RELATIONS/FSA_2020_VOLUMUL%202.pdf" target="_blank" >https://www.strategii21.ro/A/2020-04.%20STRATEGIC%20CHANGES%20IN%20SECURITY%20AND%20INTERNATIONAL%20RELATIONS/FSA_2020_VOLUMUL%202.pdf</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
—

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Formalized Scenario Building Apadpation for Conflict Prevention
Original language description
Scenario-building methods are broadly employed to assist prediction and planning across a broad field of applications. Security environment analysis and conflict prevention planning has predominantly relied on long-term trend assessments by experts and infrequently on basic scenario building. The mode of scenario building was characterized by high-volume or extreme case methodology. The high number of possible scenarios and assignment of probabilities present key disadvantages. The paper proposes an adaptation of Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) methodology to security environment analysis and conflict prevention by illustrating this application on a dataset of 12 monitored trend factors specifically tested on a set of 316 cases. The application shows that TIA combines the advantages of quantitative and scenario-building methods to systematically reduce the number of probable scenarios and increase the precision of predictions necessary for effective analysis and conflict prevention. This application is highly relevant to both state and international medium and long-term conflict prevention and threat mitigation strategies
Czech name
—
Czech description
—

Project
<a href="/en/project/VI20172020094" target="_blank" >VI20172020094: Methodology for the forecast, early warning, and prevention of threats to Czech internal security from regional armed conflicts</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year
2020
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Article name in the collection
PROCEEDINGS THE 16TH INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE “STRATEGIES XXI” : STRATEGIC CHANGES IN SECURITY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, Volume 16, Part 2
ISBN
—
ISSN
2668-1994
e-ISSN
2668-2001
Number of pages
15
Pages from-to
9-23
Publisher name
“Carol I” National Defence University
Place of publication
Bucharest
Event location
Bucharest
Event date
Apr 9, 2020
Type of event by nationality
WRD - Celosvětová akce
UT code for WoS article
—

Similar results(10)