Civil War Prediction : Literature Review on Territorial and Ethnic Structural Conditions

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14230%2F20%3A00120052" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14230/20:00120052 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://annals-politics.univ-ovidius.ro/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/3.-AUOC-PolSci-Vol.-9-2020-67-87-Ilavska.pdf" target="_blank" >http://annals-politics.univ-ovidius.ro/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/3.-AUOC-PolSci-Vol.-9-2020-67-87-Ilavska.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Civil War Prediction : Literature Review on Territorial and Ethnic Structural Conditions

Original language description

Armed civil conflicts in foreign countries have significant consequences for states in the international system. The political, social and economic threats generated by them have in recent years become relevant in a global sense. In order to successfully deal with them, the international community desires to develop a reliable prediction and prevention model. The crucial part concerns the identification of the causal paths leading to conflict escalation but assembling these paths must be preceded by the evaluation of various possible causes as separate variables. It is also important to factor causal complexity into the model, therefore, to analyze not only single variables but also their interconnections. The article reviews two major areas of civil conflict causes – territorial and ethnic. It summarizes the main arguments and theories beyond the suggested proxy variables representing territorial and ethnic problems. By reviewing the existing research, this study aims to facilitate the selection of variables for prediction and prevention systems. The result is a literature review clarifying the relations among the causes of conflict that underlies their importance. All proposed territorial and ethnic causes have to be assessed in relation with complementary variables but also applied to a particular country which would benefit from the prediction and prevention model.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_ost - Miscellaneous article in a specialist periodical

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

50601 - Political science

Project

<a href="/en/project/VI20172020094" target="_blank" >VI20172020094: Methodology for the forecast, early warning, and prevention of threats to Czech internal security from regional armed conflicts</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2020

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Annals of the „Ovidius” University of Constanţa, Political Science Series

ISSN

2286-315X

e-ISSN

2668-0831

Volume of the periodical

9

Issue of the periodical within the volume

neuveden

Country of publishing house

RO - ROMANIA

Number of pages

21

Pages from-to

67-87

UT code for WoS article

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EID of the result in the Scopus database

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