Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and limitations

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14310%2F17%3A00094647" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14310/17:00094647 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.011" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.011</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.011" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.011</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and limitations

Original language description

We modelled the European distribution of vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using present-day data from Siberia, a region hypothesized to be a modern analogue of European glacial climate. Distribution models were calibrated with current climate using 6274 vegetation-plot records surveyed in Siberia. Out of 22 initially used vegetation types, good or moderately good models in terms of statistical validation and expert-based evaluation were computed for 18 types, which were then projected to European climate at the LGM. The resulting distributions were generally consistent with reconstructions based on pollen records and dynamic vegetation models. Spatial predictions were most reliable for steppe, forest-steppe, taiga, tundra, fens and bogs in eastern and central Europe, which had LGM climate more similar to present-day Siberia. The models for western and southern Europe, regions with a lower degree of climatic analogy, were only reliable for mires and steppe vegetation, respectively. Modelling LGM vegetation types for the wetter and warmer regions of Europe would therefore require gathering calibration data from outside Siberia. Our approach adds value to the reconstruction of vegetation at the LGM, which is limited by scarcity of pollen and macrofossil data, suggesting where specific habitats could have occurred. Despite the uncertainties of climatic extrapolations and the difficulty of validating the projections for vegetation types, the integration of palaeodistribution modelling with other approaches has a great potential for improving our understanding of biodiversity patterns during the LGM.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10611 - Plant sciences, botany

Project

<a href="/en/project/GAP504%2F11%2F0454" target="_blank" >GAP504/11/0454: Biodiversity change during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition: modern analogues in relict ecosystems of Siberia</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2017

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Quaternary Science Reviews

ISSN

0277-3791

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

159

Issue of the periodical within the volume

March

Country of publishing house

GB - UNITED KINGDOM

Number of pages

13

Pages from-to

103-115

UT code for WoS article

000395609300008

EID of the result in the Scopus database

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