Future Changes in European Severe Convection Environments in a Regional Climate Model Ensemble

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14310%2F17%3A00102013" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14310/17:00102013 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1" target="_blank" >http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1" target="_blank" >10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Future Changes in European Severe Convection Environments in a Regional Climate Model Ensemble

Original language description

The occurrence of environmental conditions favorable for severe convective storms was assessed in an ensemble of 14 regional climate models covering Europe and the Mediterranean with a horizontal grid spacing of 0.448. These conditions included the collocated presence of latent instability and strong deep-layer (surface to 500 hPa) wind shear, which is conducive to the severe andwell-organized convective storms. The occurrence of precipitation in the models was used as a proxy for convective initiation. Two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were investigated by comparing two future periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100) to a historical period (1971–2000) for each of these scenarios. The ensemble simulates a robust increase (change larger than twice the ensemble sample standard deviation) in the frequency of occurrence of unstable environments (lifted index &lt; -2 K) across central and south-central Europe in the RCP8.5 scenario in the late twenty-first century. This increase coincides with the increase in lower-tropospheric moisture. Smaller, less robust changes were found until midcentury in the RCP8.5 scenario and in the RCP4.5 scenario.Changes in the frequency of situations with strong (&gt; 15 m/s) deep-layer shear were found to be small and not robust, except across far northern Europe, where a decrease in shear is projected. By the end of the century, the simultaneous occurrence of latent instability, strong deep-layer shear, andmodel precipitation is simulated to increase by up to 100% across central and eastern Europe in the RCP8.5 and by 30%–50% in the RCP4.5 scenario. Until midcentury, increases in the 10%–25%range are forecast formost regions.Alarge intermodel variability is present in the ensemble and is primarily due to the uncertainties in the frequency of the occurrence of unstable environments.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10500 - Earth and related environmental sciences

Project

—

Continuities

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year

2017

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Journal of Climate

ISSN

0894-8755

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

30

Issue of the periodical within the volume

17

Country of publishing house

US - UNITED STATES

Number of pages

24

Pages from-to

6771-6794

UT code for WoS article

000407276600011

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85027253013