Forcings and projections of past and future wind speed over the Czech Republic

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14310%2F19%3A00133984" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14310/19:00133984 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/00216208:11320/18:10388203 RIV/86652079:_____/18:00506155 RIV/00020699:_____/19:N0000056

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v77/n1/p1-21/" target="_blank" >https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v77/n1/p1-21/</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01540" target="_blank" >10.3354/cr01540</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Forcings and projections of past and future wind speed over the Czech Republic

Original language description

Monthly, seasonal and annual wind-speed series from 119 meteorological stations situated throughout the Czech Republic indicate decreasing and statistically significant trends in the 1961–2015 period. Attribution analysis, applying multiple linear regression, was used to identify wind-speed components related to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings and internally-induced climate variability. A significant link to wind speeds was detected for the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, as well as for the closely-related Central European Zonal Index, especially during the winter season. An influence from the East Atlantic/Western Russia Pattern was found during autumn and winter, especially in the eastern part of the Czech territory. A weaker, although still significant, relation to volcanic activity also emerged, but was found to be likely spurious due to its absence in free atmosphere wind over the Czech territory. Changes in the large-scale circulation did not seem to be primarily involved in long-term wind stilling, despite a formal correlation between the stilling and anthropogenic forcing. Distinct geographical variations in the regression-estimated links suggest profound influence from interactions between the local features of the measuring sites and large-scale climate-forming factors. A total of 11 Euro-CORDEX Regional Climate Model simulations for Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used for projection of annual and seasonal mean daily wind speeds for the territory of the Czech Republic in the 1951–2100 period. Despite correction of the model biases for individual regional climate models, these simulations largely underestimated the magnitude of declining observational trends in 1981–2010, with only annual, winter and spring values sharing the same sign of trend for both RCPs. Linear trends in wind speeds calculated for 1981–2100 for both RCPs show a significant negative trend in summer, while significant positive trends in winter and spring wind speeds were recorded in RCP8.5.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10500 - Earth and related environmental sciences

Project

<a href="/en/project/GA15-11805S" target="_blank" >GA15-11805S: Windstorms in the Czech Lands during the past 500 years</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2019

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Climate Research

ISSN

0936-577X

e-ISSN

1616-1572

Volume of the periodical

77

Issue of the periodical within the volume

1

Country of publishing house

DE - GERMANY

Number of pages

21

Pages from-to

1-21

UT code for WoS article

000456195100001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85060850326