Model ZSEIAR

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14310%2F21%3A00121754" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14310/21:00121754 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Model ZSEIAR
Original language description
Our model is based on a mechanistic compartmental approach of the SEIR model. The main novel concept is using a moving ascertainment rate estimate computed from data of hospitalized subjects (using a proportion of cases not caught before hospital admission), so it estimates the observed part of the epidemic and the undetected absent infected. We have developed an extended ZSEIAR model that includes also unknown dynamics in the affected clusters. Optimization, which according to real data estimates the size of the affected clusters, makes it possible not to distinguish seasonality, the degree of influence of government measures, or changes in people's behavior caused by fear or disinformation. We submit our predictions to ECDC forecast hub https://covid19forecasthub.eu/ as well as to the web Czech Monitoring, Analysis and Management of Epidemic Situations https://webstudio.shinyapps.io/MAMES/.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Publication year
2021
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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