Projections of streamflow intermittence under climate change in European drying river networks

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14310%2F25%3A00141154" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14310/25:00141154 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1615-2025" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1615-2025</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1615-2025" target="_blank" >10.5194/hess-29-1615-2025</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Projections of streamflow intermittence under climate change in European drying river networks

Original language description

Climate and land use changes, as well as human water use and flow alteration, are causing worldwide shifts in river flow dynamics. During the last decades, low flows, flow intermittence, and drying have increased in many regions of the world, including Europe. This trend is projected to continue and amplify in the future, resulting in more frequent and intense hydrological droughts. However, due to a lack of data and studies on temporary rivers in the past, little is known about the processes governing the development of flow intermittence and drying, their timing and frequency, or their long-term evolution under climate change. Moreover, understanding the impact of climate change on the drying up of rivers is crucial to assess the impact of climate change on aquatic ecosystems, including the biodiversity and functional integrity of freshwater systems. This study is one of the first to present future projections of drying in intermittent river networks and to analyse future changes in the drying patterns at a high spatial and temporal resolution. Flow intermittence projections were produced using a hybrid hydrological model forced with climate projection data from 1985 until 2100 under three climate scenarios in six European drying river networks. The studied watershed areas are situated in different biogeographic regions, located in Spain, France, Croatia, Hungary, Czechia, and Finland, and their areas range from 150 to 350 km2. Additionally, flow intermittence indicators were developed and calculated to assess (1) changes in the characteristics of the drying spells at the reach scale and (2) changes in the spatial extent of drying in the river network at various time intervals. The results for all three climate scenarios show that drying patterns are projected to increase and expand in time and space, despite differences in the amplitude of changes. Temporally, in addition to the average frequency of drying events, the duration increases over the year. Seasonal changes are expected to result in an earlier onset and longer persistence of drying throughout the year. Summer drying maxima are likely to shift to earlier in the spring, with extended drying periods or additional maxima occurring in autumn and extending into the winter season in some regions. A trend analysis of extreme events shows that the extreme dry spells observed in recent years could become regular by the end of the century. Additionally, we observe transitions from perennial to intermittent reaches in the future.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10500 - Earth and related environmental sciences

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2025

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

ISSN

1027-5606

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

29

Issue of the periodical within the volume

6

Country of publishing house

DE - GERMANY

Number of pages

22

Pages from-to

1615-1636

UT code for WoS article

001450818600001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-105001042293