Inference of Pairwise Interactions from Strain Frequency Data Across Settings and Context-Dependent Mutual Invasibilities
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14310%2F25%3A00141251" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14310/25:00141251 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-025-01450-0" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-025-01450-0</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-025-01450-0" target="_blank" >10.1007/s11538-025-01450-0</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Inference of Pairwise Interactions from Strain Frequency Data Across Settings and Context-Dependent Mutual Invasibilities
Original language description
We propose a method to estimate pairwise strain interactions from population-level frequencies across different endemic settings. We apply the framework of replicator dynamics, derived from a multi-strain SIS model with co-colonization, to extract from 5 datasets the fundamental backbone of strain interactions. In our replicator, each pairwise invasion fitness explicitly arises from local environmental context and trait variations between strains. We adopt the simplest formulation for multi-strain coexistence, where context is encoded in basic reproduction number R0 and mean global susceptibility to co-colonization k, and trait variations αij capture pairwise deviations from k. We integrate Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype frequencies and serotype identities collected from 5 environments: epidemiological surveys in Denmark, Nepal, Iran, Brazil and Mozambique, and mechanistically link their distributions. Our results have twofold implications. First, we offer a new proof-of-concept in the inference of multi-species interactions based on cross-sectional data. We also discuss 2 key aspects of the method: the site ordering for sequential fitting, and stability constraints on the dynamics. Secondly, we effectively estimate at high-resolution more than 70% of the 92×92 pneumococcus serotype interaction matrix in co-colonization, allowing for further projections and hypotheses testing. We show that, in these bacteria, both within- and between- serotype interaction coefficients’ distribution emerge to be unimodal, their difference in mean broadly reflecting stability assumptions on serotype coexistence. This framework enables further model calibration to global data: cross-sectional across sites, or longitudinal in one site over time, - and should allow a more robust and integrated investigation of intervention effects in such biodiverse ecosystems.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10100 - Mathematics
Result continuities
Project
—
Continuities
S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach
Others
Publication year
2025
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
ISSN
0092-8240
e-ISSN
1522-9602
Volume of the periodical
87
Issue of the periodical within the volume
6
Country of publishing house
US - UNITED STATES
Number of pages
29
Pages from-to
1-29
UT code for WoS article
001492246600001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-105005593428