The SGP?Faulty by Design or Made Faulty by Politicians? An Assessment Based on a Simulation Model

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F14%3A00076601" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/14:00076601 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://nho.econ.muni.cz/14-2014/3-2014/sgp-%E2%80%93-faulty-design-or-made-faulty-politicians-assessment-based-simulation-model" target="_blank" >http://nho.econ.muni.cz/14-2014/3-2014/sgp-%E2%80%93-faulty-design-or-made-faulty-politicians-assessment-based-simulation-model</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/revecp-2014-0013" target="_blank" >10.2478/revecp-2014-0013</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
The SGP?Faulty by Design or Made Faulty by Politicians? An Assessment Based on a Simulation Model
Original language description
By joining the European Monetary Union (the ?EMU?), member countries lost the ability to use monetary policy as a tool for macroeconomic regulation. The attention was then focused on regulation of fiscal policy and Stability and Growth Pact (the ?SGP?) was the instrument agreed upon. The states of the EMU have agreed to meet the 3% of GDP requirement for the maximum annual public budget deficit. Based on evolution of public debt in member countries, we can say that the SGP has failed as a tool for fiscal discipline. In this paper, we answer the question of whether the failure was due to the incorrect concept of the SGP or whether the development of the debt was affected more by arbitrary disrespect of the agreed rules. The two reasons mentioned above are interdependent. To separate them, we construct a dynamic model of EU countries? public debt. By using real data, we simulate the potential values of public debt in a situation where the SGP rules have been respected in recent years.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>x</sub> - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)
CEP classification
AH - Economics
OECD FORD branch
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Publication year
2014
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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