Sovereign Bond Spreads as a Predictors of Gross Domestic Product Growth in North America

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F15%3A00084191" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/15:00084191 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Sovereign Bond Spreads as a Predictors of Gross Domestic Product Growth in North America
Original language description
The yield curve ? specifically the spread between long term and short term interest rates is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead. The steepness of the yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future economic activity. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow real growth the near term. This paper aims to analyze the dependence between slope of the yield curve and an economic activity of countries of North America (Canada, Mexico, the United States of America) between the years 2000 and 2014. The slope of the yield curve can be measured as the yield spread betweensovereign 10-year bonds and sovereign 3-month bonds. The natural and probably the most popular measure of economic growth is by GDP growth, taken quarterly.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Publication year
2015
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Article name in the collection
European Financial Systems 2015. Proceedings of the 12th International Scientific Conference
ISBN
9788021079625
ISSN
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e-ISSN
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Number of pages
6
Pages from-to
218-223
Publisher name
Masarykova univerzita
Place of publication
Brno
Event location
Brno
Event date
Jan 1, 2015
Type of event by nationality
EUR - Evropská akce
UT code for WoS article
000370679200030

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