I just estimated twenty million fiscal multipliers

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F17%3A00095023" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/17:00095023 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Result language
angličtina
Original language name
I just estimated twenty million fiscal multipliers
Original language description
We analyse the role played by data and modelling choices as determinants of the size of estimated fiscal multipliers. Using data for European economies, we assess empirically how the methodology used to obtain the multiplier affects its size and accuracy. The results based on over twenty million fiscal multiplier estimates indicate that many seemingly harmless choices play a significant role. Narrower definition of government revenues lead to an increase in the multiplier (and the precision of its estimate), whereas narrower definition of government spending lead to a decrease of the tax cut multiplier (and the precision of its estimate). If the fiscal data is smoothed beforehand, the multipliers are estimated as higher and with lower volatility. In case that fiscal shocks are identified with causal ordering, extending the data used for inflation and the interest rate increases the value of the multiplier. For spending multipliers, using HICP to deflate nominal variables (instead of GDP deflator) and following ESA 95 (instead of ESA 2010) increases the estimate of the multiplier.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Project
<a href="/en/project/GA17-14263S" target="_blank" >GA17-14263S: Dynamic forecast averaging of macroeconomic models</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year
2017
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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