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Assessing uncertainty of output gap estimates: Evidence from Visegrad countries

The result's identifiers

  • Result code in IS VaVaI

    <a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F22%3A00124873" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/22:00124873 - isvavai.cz</a>

  • Result on the web

    <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026499932200236X" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026499932200236X</a>

  • DOI - Digital Object Identifier

    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105994" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105994</a>

Alternative languages

  • Result language

    angličtina

  • Original language name

    Assessing uncertainty of output gap estimates: Evidence from Visegrad countries

  • Original language description

    The reliability of output gap estimates is a crucial factor for the successful implementation of economic policy. We evaluate the robustness and stability of output gap estimates while comparing structural and non-structural techniques, using recursive estimates and alternative stability indicators. Our results provide evidence that some structural approaches outperform other available methods. Structural approaches exhibit a higher order of stability. Especially the methods based on the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition outperform the other structural and non-structural methods. The stability of structural approaches increases as new data becomes available. Moreover, output gap uncertainty diminishes during the positive business cycle phases, and structural approaches offer better overall stability performance and exhibit more stable concordance of these estimates. Our results are robust to alternative prior density settings and reveal similar output gap uncertainty patterns for the Visegrad countries, the euro area, and the United States.

  • Czech name

  • Czech description

Classification

  • Type

    J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

  • CEP classification

  • OECD FORD branch

    50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Result continuities

  • Project

  • Continuities

    S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Others

  • Publication year

    2022

  • Confidentiality

    S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Data specific for result type

  • Name of the periodical

    ECONOMIC MODELLING

  • ISSN

    0264-9993

  • e-ISSN

    1873-6122

  • Volume of the periodical

    116

  • Issue of the periodical within the volume

    November

  • Country of publishing house

    NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS

  • Number of pages

    25

  • Pages from-to

    1-25

  • UT code for WoS article

    000859457400009

  • EID of the result in the Scopus database

    2-s2.0-85136630683