The role of news-based sentiment in forecasting crude oil price during the Covid-19 pandemic

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216275%3A25410%2F25%3A39923436" target="_blank" >RIV/00216275:25410/25:39923436 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-024-05821-z" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-024-05821-z</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-024-05821-z" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10479-024-05821-z</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
The role of news-based sentiment in forecasting crude oil price during the Covid-19 pandemic
Original language description
During the Covid-19 pandemic, news-based sentiment emerged as a factor linked to crude oil prices in the literature. However, the question remained as to whether this sentiment could be used to more accurately predict crude oil prices. To assess the effect of news-based sentiment on forecasting crude oil prices, five models based on state-of-the-art machine learning methods were compared; they were taken from the literature on crude oil forecasting. Results are reported for each method for the period of the Covid-19 pandemic and also for the years from 1990 to the beginning of the pandemic. This allowed for the examination of the role of news-based sentiment during different periods of economic development and crisis. Across the machine learning methods, a significant effect of news-based sentiment was observed in terms of its predictive performance during the Covid-19 period, in contrast to previous periods, including the financial crisis of 2008-2009.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
50206 - Finance

Project
<a href="/en/project/GA22-22586S" target="_blank" >GA22-22586S: Aspect-based sentiment analysis of financial texts for predicting corporate financial performance</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year
2025
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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