SARIMA modelling approach for railway passenger flow forecasting

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216275%3A25510%2F15%3A39900759" target="_blank" >RIV/00216275:25510/15:39900759 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/16484142.2016.1139623" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/16484142.2016.1139623</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/16484142.2016.1139623" target="_blank" >10.3846/16484142.2016.1139623</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
SARIMA modelling approach for railway passenger flow forecasting
Original language description
In this paper, railway passenger flows are analyzed and a suitable modeling method proposed. Based on historical data composed from monthly passenger counts realized on Serbian railway network it is concluded that the time series has a strong autocorrelation of seasonal characteristics. In order to deal with seasonal periodicity, Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method is applied for fitting and forecasting the time series that spans over the January 2004 – June 2014 periods. Experimental results show good prediction performances. Therefore, developed SARIMA model can be considered for forecasting of monthly passenger flows on Serbian railways.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
—
OECD FORD branch
50204 - Business and management

Project
<a href="/en/project/EE2.3.30.0058" target="_blank" >EE2.3.30.0058: Development of Research Teams at the University of Pardubice</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year
2015
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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