Demographic Development in Waste Production Forecasts for Energy Recovery Planning
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26210%2F26%3A0197533" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26210/26:0197533 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/00216208:11310/25:10497944
Result on the web
<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225015373" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225015373</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2025.135895" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.energy.2025.135895</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Demographic Development in Waste Production Forecasts for Energy Recovery Planning
Original language description
The transition to a circular economy is driving dynamic changes in waste management. While many waste fractions cannot be materially recovered, energy recovery remains a viable solution. Planning a long-term sustainable system requires accurate forecasts of waste production and treatment, closely tied to population trends, which pose challenges for smaller territorial units due to data variability. This study analyses the impact of demographic projections on waste production forecasts, focusing on fractions suitable for energy recovery with the territorial detail. The output is the identification of the difference in forecasts including demography development and without this factor. In the Czech Republic, population change of approximately 0.5% is expected by 2035. Despite this, significant differences emerge at the regional and micro-regional levels. Forecasts at the micro-regional level vary by more than 10%, with the extreme case where the difference exceeds 30%. Forecasts indicate that municipal waste suitable for energy recovery will exceed 2,600 kt, while the current facility capacity in the Czech Republic is only about 750 kt. Increasing waste-to-energy facility capacities will be necessary. The findings of this study enable targeted planning of new capacities in regions with high expected waste production and thus create a sustainable system of waste management.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10102 - Applied mathematics
Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/GA25-15751S" target="_blank" >GA25-15751S: New methods in operations research for managerial decisions in waste management</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)
Others
Publication year
2025
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Energy
ISSN
0360-5442
e-ISSN
1873-6785
Volume of the periodical
323
Issue of the periodical within the volume
1
Country of publishing house
GB - UNITED KINGDOM
Number of pages
15
Pages from-to
1-15
UT code for WoS article
001458602300001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-105001339212