Global projections of plastic use, end-of-life fate and potential changes in consumption, reduction, recycling and replacement with bioplastics to 2050

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26210%2F26%3A0201334" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26210/26:0201334 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352550924002823" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352550924002823</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2024.09.025" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.spc.2024.09.025</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Global projections of plastic use, end-of-life fate and potential changes in consumption, reduction, recycling and replacement with bioplastics to 2050

Original language description

Excessive production, indiscriminate consumption, and improper disposal of plastics have led to plastic pollution and its hazardous environmental effects. Various approaches to tackle the challenges of reducing the plastic footprint have been developed and applied, such as the production of alternative materials (design for recycling), the production and use of biodegradable plastic and plastics from power-to-X, and the development of recycling approaches. This study proposes an optimisation strategy based on regression to evaluate and predict plastic use and end-of-life fate in the future based on historical trends. The mathematical model is formulated and correlations based on functions of time are developed and optimised by minimising the sum of squared residuals. The plastic quantities up to the year 2050 are projected based on historical trends analysis, and for improved sustainability, projections are additionally based on intervention analyses. The results show that the global use of plastics is expected to increase from 464 Mt in 2020 up to 884 Mt in 2050, with up to 4725 Mt of plastics accumulated in stock in 2050 (from the year 2000). Compared to other available forecasts, a slightly lower level of plastic use and stock are obtained. The intervention analysis estimates a range of global plastics' consumption between 594 Mt and 1018 Mt in 2050 by taking into account its different increment rates (between -1 % and 2.65 %). In the packaging sector, the implementation of reduction targets (15 % reduction in 2040 compared to 2018) could lead to a 27.3 % decrease in plastic use in 2050 as compared to 2018, while achieving recycling targets (55 % in 2030) would recycle >75 % of plastic packaging in 2050. The partial substitution of fossil-based plastics with bioplastics (polyethylene) will require significant land area, between 0.2 x 10(6) km(2) for obtaining switchgrass and up to around 1.0 x 10(6) km(2) for obtaining forest residue (annual yields of 58.15 t/ha and 3.5 t/ha) in 2050. The intervention analysis shows that proactive policies can mitigate sustainability challenges, however achieving broader sustainability goals also requires reduction of footprints related to energy production and virgin plastic production, the production of bio-based plastics, and the full implementation of recycling initiatives.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

50704 - Environmental sciences (social aspects)

Project

<a href="/en/project/GF21-45726L" target="_blank" >GF21-45726L: Sustainable Plastic Value Chain to Support a Circular Economy Transition</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2024

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Sustainable Production and Consumption

ISSN

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e-ISSN

2352-5509

Volume of the periodical

51

Issue of the periodical within the volume

November

Country of publishing house

NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS

Number of pages

21

Pages from-to

498-518

UT code for WoS article

001337598600001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85206161179