To what degree is the accuracy of a bankruptcy prediction model affected by the environment? The case of the Baltic States and the Czech Republic

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26510%2F14%3APU111799" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26510/14:PU111799 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877042814060613" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877042814060613</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.11.241" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.11.241</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
To what degree is the accuracy of a bankruptcy prediction model affected by the environment? The case of the Baltic States and the Czech Republic
Original language description
According to some authors, bankruptcy models are less accurate if used in an environment different from the one for which they were designed. This is due to the higher heterogeneity of the data. The accuracy of the prediction model may be improved by reducing this heterogeneity. An alternative solution to the problem of the limited transferability (e.g. robustness) of a model may be to identify the environmental factors that affect the models prediction accuracy and incorporate them into it. This paper presents research of the prediction accuracy of a bankruptcy model in four countries and the correlation found between the development of selected macroeconomic indicators in these countries. It proved possible in this way to identify those macroeconomic factors that show similar correlation patterns between given environments as investigated by the accuracy of the bankruptcy model. These factors include, first and foremost, the performance of the economy, inflation and unemployment. The incorporation into the model of such factors is very likely to increase model robustness.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Publication year
2014
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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