Prediction of economic growth to determine the growth rate of business value
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26510%2F19%3APU132653" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26510/19:PU132653 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://is.muni.cz/do/econ/sborniky/2019/" target="_blank" >https://is.muni.cz/do/econ/sborniky/2019/</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Prediction of economic growth to determine the growth rate of business value
Original language description
The aim of this paper is to describe approaches to determining the growth rate of two-stage discounted cash flow valuation method and to propose possibilities to refine its prediction. Business value is given by a set of business-economic variables, so-called value drivers; one of which is the growth rate. The determination of the growth rate is based on an analysis and prediction of macroeconomic factors and on the company’s internal factors. According to our research the value of an enterprise is very sensitive to changes in the growth rate. Therefore, we believe the issue requires closer attention. The growth rate as a value driver is commonly derived from the GDP growth rate, which characterizes economic cycles. In literature this is often identified with business cycles. Authors of this paper deal with GDP prediction and possibilities of using composite indicators to determine the growth rate of cash flow, specifically to refine the first phase prediction. Composite indicators are used to predict the development of economic cycles and their use is therefore particularly suitable for pro-cyclical sectors. Another possibility of using composite indicators is to incorporate partial factors directly into business valuation models. In particular, we see the benefit of using composite indicators in their better accessibility. For the purpose of our analysis we use the Pearson correlation coefficient to determine the correlation between the GDP and the selected industry from 2007 to 2017 or the composite indicator, the logarithmic difference to analyse economic cycles and the mean deviation value to compare the GDP prediction with the real GDP.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
D - Article in proceedings
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
50206 - Finance
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach
Others
Publication year
2019
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Article name in the collection
European Financial Systems 2019, Proceedings of the 16th International Scientific Conference
ISBN
978-80-210-9338-6
ISSN
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e-ISSN
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Number of pages
8
Pages from-to
560-567
Publisher name
Neuveden
Place of publication
Brno
Event location
Brno
Event date
Jun 24, 2019
Type of event by nationality
WRD - Celosvětová akce
UT code for WoS article
000503222600067