Seasonal synchronization and unpredictability in epidemic models with waning immunity and healthcare thresholds

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26510%2F26%3A0198157" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26510/26:0198157 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/00216224:14310/25:00141183

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-01467-4" target="_blank" >https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-01467-4</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-01467-4" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41598-025-01467-4</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Seasonal synchronization and unpredictability in epidemic models with waning immunity and healthcare thresholds

Original language description

This paper explores a model integrating healthcare capacity thresholds and seasonal effects to investigate the synchronization of epidemic cycles with seasonal transmission rates, using parameters reflective of the COVID-19 pandemic. Through bifurcation analysis in the epi-seasonal domain, we identify regions of significant seasonal synchronization related to transmission rate fluctuations, waning immunity, and healthcare capacity thresholds. The model highlights four sources of unpredictability: chaotic regimes, quasiperiodicity, proximity to SNIC or transcritical bifurcations, and bistability. Our findings reveal that chaotic regimes are more predictable than quasiperiodic regimes in epidemiological terms. Synchronizing outbreaks with seasonal cycles, even in chaotic regimes, predominantly results in significant winter outbreaks. Conversely, quasiperiodicity allows outbreaks to occur at any time of the year. Near eradication unpredictability aligns with historical pertussis data, underscoring the model’s relevance to real-world epidemics and vaccine schedules. Additionally, we identify a bistability region with potential for abrupt shifts in disease prevalence, triggered by superspreading events or migration.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10102 - Applied mathematics

Project

—

Continuities

N - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z neverejnych zdroju

Publication year

2025

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Scientific Reports

ISSN

2045-2322

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

15

Issue of the periodical within the volume

5

Country of publishing house

GB - UNITED KINGDOM

Number of pages

20

Pages from-to

1-20

UT code for WoS article

001489971100014

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-105005438793