Roundtable “HTS and the Remaking of Syria: Uncertainty, Islamist Rule, and Regional Interests”

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F27590101%3A_____%2F25%3A00000273" target="_blank" >RIV/27590101:_____/25:00000273 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.pcmr.cz/2025/02/14/roundtable-hts-and-the-remaking-of-syria-uncertainty-islamist-rule-and-regional-interests/?lang=en" target="_blank" >https://www.pcmr.cz/2025/02/14/roundtable-hts-and-the-remaking-of-syria-uncertainty-islamist-rule-and-regional-interests/?lang=en</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Roundtable “HTS and the Remaking of Syria: Uncertainty, Islamist Rule, and Regional Interests”

Original language description

The event included a discussion on the current form of governance of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS), which has become the dominant force in the country since the overthrow of the Assad regime. This discussion focused on the relationship between the HTS and other armed groups such as the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Syrian National Army (SNA), and the Druze militias in the south of the country. The discussion focused in particular on the HTS’s attitude towards Syrian minorities such as the Alawites, Christians, Druse, and Kurds. Furthermore, the debate revolved around the main challenges for the newly installed Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), not only regarding the obstacles with a highly ethno-sectarian fragmented Syria, but also in trying to find a balance between relations with regional and global actors. Last but not least, the settlement issue in northeastern Syria, where negotiations between the Kurdish National Council (KNC) and the Democratic Union Party (PYD) or the influence of regional foreign actors such as Turkey, Qatar, or Saudi Arabia were discussed. On November 27, 2024, the Islamist group HTS, a former affiliate of al-Qaeda, launched a large-scale offensive on the northern Syrian city of Aleppo. It quickly seized control of several key cities, including Hama and Homs. On December 8, the remnants of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) captured the capital, Damascus, which accelerated the collapse of the Syrian regime. President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, where he was granted asylum. The rapid advance of HTS has been attributed to geopolitical shifts in the region, particularly the weakening influence of Russia and Iran, as well as the lack of preparedness, low morale, and limited capacity of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). HTS has emerged as the primary governing force along Syria’s north-south axis. This armed group now holds the dominant position on the ground, with its leader, Ahmed al-Shara (nom de Guerre Mohammed al-Jolani), attempting to navigate a pragmatic path in dealing with local, regional, and global actors. However, governing Syria presents far greater challenges than ruling Idlib, and HTS faces significant obstacles in leading the country out of its multiple crises. Meanwhile, in the north, Turkey and its SNA factions continue to exert pressure on the SDF and other Kurdish groups in an effort to curtail their autonomy in the northeast, which remains under the administration of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES).

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

W - Workshop organization

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

50600 - Political science

Project

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Continuities

N - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z neverejnych zdroju

Publication year

2025

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Event location

Praha

Event country

CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

Event starting date

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Event ending date

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Total number of attendees

17

Foreign attendee count

3

Type of event by attendee nationality

WRD - Celosvětová akce