Dynamic bayesian networks application for evaluating the investment projects effectiveness

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F44555601%3A13440%2F21%3A43895581" target="_blank" >RIV/44555601:13440/21:43895581 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54215-3_20" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54215-3_20</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54215-3_20" target="_blank" >10.1007/978-3-030-54215-3_20</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Dynamic bayesian networks application for evaluating the investment projects effectiveness

Original language description

In this paper, we propose a methodology for using dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) in the tasks of assessing the success of an investment project. The methods of constructing DBN, their parametric learning, validation and scenario analysis of &quot;What-if&quot; are considered. A dynamic Bayesian model has been developed for scenario analysis and forecasting the success of an investment project. The model takes into account the time component and is designed in collaboration with expert economists in the selection and quantification of input and output variables. Now, using the dynamic Bayesian model, it is possible with a certain degree of probability to assess the degree of success of the capital investment, without incurring monetary and temporary losses. This will greatly facilitate the investment forecast for identifying profitable investment sources. This is the advantage of the proposed approach.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

D - Article in proceedings

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10201 - Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8)

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2021

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Article name in the collection

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing

ISBN

978-3-030-54214-6

ISSN

2194-5357

e-ISSN

2194-5365

Number of pages

16

Pages from-to

315-330

Publisher name

Springer

Place of publication

Cham

Event location

Kherson

Event date

May 25, 2020

Type of event by nationality

WRD - Celosvětová akce

UT code for WoS article

000614116800020