Optimal Strategy in Sports Betting

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F46747885%3A24310%2F11%3A00001616" target="_blank" >RIV/46747885:24310/11:00001616 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Optimal Strategy in Sports Betting
Original language description
The aim of this paper is to find the optimal strategy for a bettor who bets on soccer matches. We will consider only single odds, i.e. either a win for the home team, a draw, or a win for the away team. No double chances or multiple odds etc. The resultof a particular match is a random variable and the probability of its result is inverse in proportion to the odd given by a bookmaker. The odds of the home team and the odds of the away team are not independent variables - they are also inversely proportional. The optimal strategy should identify the odds and the result which the bettor should bet on. For this optimization we use historical data. For every match we have three odds (home win, draw, away win). We keep only the odds which correspond to theright result. The other ones we substitute with zeros. The modified triples of odds are sorted by the odds for home wins and then they are smoothed by moving averages. If we find a contiguous segment of smoothed values greater than one,
Czech name
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Czech description
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Publication year
2011
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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