Statistical and NN Forecasting Models of Financial Data: Making Inferences about the Accuracy and Risk Evaluation

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F47813059%3A19240%2F11%3A%230004056" target="_blank" >RIV/47813059:19240/11:#0004056 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://www.oldcitypublishing.com/MVLSC/MVLSC.html" target="_blank" >http://www.oldcitypublishing.com/MVLSC/MVLSC.html</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Statistical and NN Forecasting Models of Financial Data: Making Inferences about the Accuracy and Risk Evaluation
Original language description
For both accurate and easy risk consideration in decision making, it is necessary to have flexible and soft methods that adapt to the input data and problem conditions. In this paper, we consider the accuracy of forecasting models based on statistical (stochastic) methods sometimes called hard computing and soft methodology based on the soft or granular computing. A new method for finding the forecasting horizon within which the risk is minimal is also presented. To evaluate the risk we used methods based on the analysis of forecast errors by applying the exponential smoothing concept. It is also found that the risk estimation process based on soft methods is simplified and less critical to the question whether the data is true crisp or white noise
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>x</sub> - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)
CEP classification
AH - Economics
OECD FORD branch
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Project
<a href="/en/project/GA402%2F08%2F0022" target="_blank" >GA402/08/0022: The Latest Intelligent Methodologies for Economic Time Series Modelling and Forecasting</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year
2011
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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