Fractured, Integrated, at War? Five Scenarios for the Geopolitical Futures of Western Balkans in 2035

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F48546054%3A_____%2F25%3AN0000041" target="_blank" >RIV/48546054:_____/25:N0000041 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://re-engaging.eu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/D5.3_-Strategic-forecast_Final.pdf" target="_blank" >https://re-engaging.eu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/D5.3_-Strategic-forecast_Final.pdf</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Fractured, Integrated, at War? Five Scenarios for the Geopolitical Futures of Western Balkans in 2035
Original language description
This report presents five exploratory scenarios examining geopolitical developments in the Western Balkans over the next decade, with a particular emphasis on the evolving roles of external actors. Drawing on a collaborative research process and insights from the Horizon No. 101132314 Re-Engaging with Neighbours in a State of War and Geopolitical Tensions (RE-ENGAGE) project, the analysis maps interactions between regional regimes, the EU, and major external stakeholders. The scenarios are designed not to predict outcomes but to illuminate possible trajectories and enrich foreign policy discourse. The five scenarios explore: (1) US withdrawal from regional affairs, (2) increased Russian hostility and belligerence, (3) simultaneous Chinese and Russian disengagement, (4) global authoritarian triumph, and (5) renewed democratization drive. The conclusion of the paper then discusses the lessons the EU should draw from these scenarios.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Publication year
2025
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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